How the USMNT’s World Cup Group Shapes Up After the 2026 Draw
The road to the 2026 World Cup officially began with Friday’s group draw, finally revealing who the United States will face on home soil next summer. While the full schedule arrives later, the opponents are set—and the picture is clearer for Mauricio Pochettino’s side.
A Familiar Trio of Opponents
By chance, the U.S. could meet three teams it already faced in 2025. The Americans beat Australia and Paraguay in fall friendlies, but fell to Türkiye in June. Türkiye remain the favorite to emerge from UEFA’s Path C playoff, though Slovakia, Romania and Kosovo all have a shot at joining Group D.
🇵🇾 Paraguay — June 12, Inglewood
Paraguay’s recent resurgence made the U.S.’s 2–1 win last month feel significant. They finished CONMEBOL qualifying only one point from second place, beating Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay at home. While Premier League names such as Miguel Almirón and Diego Gómez stand out, much of the squad comes from top South American clubs.
The friendly in Philadelphia was physical and tight—24 fouls, 16 total shots—and the rematch at SoFi Stadium will likely feature the same intensity.
🇦🇺 Australia — June 19, Seattle
Australia breezed through Asian qualifying, conceding only three goals in 16 matches. Their 2025 form was excellent until the U.S. came back to beat them 2–1 in October. The Socceroos lack big-club star power, but their structure and counterattacking discipline remain elite.
They’re comfortable without the ball—allowing the U.S. 63% possession in the friendly—and rarely concede high-quality chances. Expect a tactical, patient battle in Seattle.
🇹🇷 UEFA Path C Winner — June 25, Inglewood
(Türkiye, Slovakia, Romania, or Kosovo)
Türkiye are the presumptive favorite, led by rising stars Arda Güler, Kenan Yildiz and Can Uzun. Their 2–1 win over the U.S. in June showed their attacking quality, though defensive lapses cost them during qualification.
If Türkiye fall short, Slovakia provide experience, Romania bring Nations League momentum, and Kosovo chase a landmark first-ever major-tournament berth with a Serie A-heavy squad.
How Far Can the U.S. Go?
Analysts agree this is one of the more manageable groups the U.S. could have drawn—especially if Türkiye fail to qualify. Paraguay and Australia are competitive but sit outside the top 20 in both FIFA and Elo rankings.
With home advantage and recent wins over two group opponents, the U.S. has a realistic path to topping Group D. Early predictions point to narrow wins over Paraguay and Australia, followed by a cautious draw against the playoff winner—enough to secure seven points and first place.
Advancing as group winner would likely pit the U.S. against a third-place finisher in the round of 32 before a potential round-of-16 clash with Belgium, the projected Group G champion. A deep run becomes tougher from there, with Spain, England, Portugal or Colombia looming in the quarterfinal landscape.
Still, with Pochettino’s side improving steadily and playing at home, expectations are rising. The U.S. may not be a tournament favorite, but this draw gives them every opportunity to deliver at least one knockout-round victory—and maybe more.
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“Social Media Reactions”
USMNT’s Fans
SkylineFurnace
Kinda wild that we’re lining up against the same teams we played in those 2025 friendlies.
↳ HarborPine
We took two of those three matches anyway. I don’t remember every detail from the Türkiye loss, but if we carry our late-2025 form into the summer, beating them isn’t unrealistic at all.
↳ CraneSector
Honestly this draw is perfect. No excuses — and we should finally have a fully healthy squad ready to go.
↳ MapleFrame
Careful with that optimism. There’s a long stretch between now and June, and every cycle we end up losing someone to injury.
2006, 2010, 2014, 2022… it happens every single time.
My worry this time is whether Robinson actually makes it back.
↳ RustlineOrbit
Even if someone goes down, we’ve looked solid with patched-together lineups. The only injury that truly scares me is Puli. Lose him and any deep-run hopes take a nosedive.
↳ IronTideCraft
Midfield depth is fine, but losing anyone in defense or in goal would be a disaster. Freese already divides the fanbase, Turner isn’t the same guy anymore, and I honestly don’t know who steps up if Freese gets hurt.
↳ BlazeHarbor
I don’t think the gap behind Freese is that dramatic. He’s earned the No.1 spot, but Poch hasn’t really tested anyone else yet.
CrimsonVoyager
That’s honestly one of the most favorable draws we could’ve hoped for, right?
↳ FrostedBanyan
Absolutely. If Türkiye make it through the playoff, they’re the one team that can really push us.
↳ ShadowRidge88
We faced all three of these sides in the buildup anyway.
USA 1–2 Türkiye
USA 2–1 Paraguay
USA 2–1 Australia
None of them are freebies, but every matchup is winnable.
↳ OrbitingHawk
Yeah, give me “winnable” over “oh god how do we survive this group” any day.
↳ WavecrestPilot
To be fair, we’ve historically done pretty well in those so-called “how the hell do we get out of this” groups too.
↳ CopperFieldLines
With this expanded format, the whole “group of death” thing basically doesn’t exist anymore.
IronHarborRise
I’ll take “beatable opponents” over “how on earth are we getting out of this group” any day.
↳ MarbleQuill
Historically we’ve actually handled those “no chance on paper” groups pretty well.
↳ DustTrailRunner
We literally survived a group with Germany, Portugal, and Ghana. Thinking about that now feels impossible.
↳ HollowStarbound
Add England to that list too.
↳ CopperSpireKite
Honestly, it would be the most USMNT outcome ever to get bounced from a supposedly easy, absolutely-not-rigged group while hosting the whole thing.
↳ NeonFieldEcho
Yeah… I remember looking at the Copa group thinking “cakewalk” and then… well, reality slapped us around.
↳ FogcrestBison
And with the new format, there’s not really a “group of death” anymore.
↳ TallMesaNinja
Groups I and L are still kinda spicy though, to be fair.
↳ RiverlineQuarry
Unless Norway show up in your group — then congratulations, you just found the actual group of death.
↳ CanopyVindicator
Yeah, imagine Norway / France / Senegal / Playoff Winner 2. That’s brutal.
VerdantRailworks
The more I think about it, the more “great draw” feels like an overstatement. There aren’t any true pushovers here, and if we’re even slightly off, every team in this group can beat us.
For a normal World Cup, yeah, this is a solid draw — but as the host and top seed, it feels pretty average.
↳ EchoHarbor12
A real cupcake group was never an option. For that, Pot 2 and Pot 3 would’ve needed to be stacked with much tougher teams.
The only way we end up with someone like Cape Verde is if the other spots were Croatia and Norway.
Haiti, Curaçao, and Jamaica’s playoff path were off the table, leaving seven realistic opponents — four of which had UEFA teams that wouldn’t have been Pot 4 if they had auto-qualified.
↳ VerdantRailworks
And honestly、half of the true cupcakes come from CONCACAF anyway lol。
We should get through without question — but there isn’t a single match in this group we can win while playing at 70%. Gotta show up every game. Let’s go.
↳ EchoHarbor12
To be fair, a lot of people think expansion means we’ll see 8–0 blowouts.
I don’t buy that. No one is rolling out of bed and winning by six.
Group D teams aren’t nearly as weak as people assume.
↳ StonecrestPilot
Never underestimate a CONCACAF team when they’re playing in CONCACAF territory.
GlacierFuse
Yeah, Türkiye have big-name talent at the top with guys like Güler and Yıldız, but once you get past their stars they lean heavily on domestic players.With that gambling scandal hanging over their league, I wouldn’t be shocked if it affects the national team before March.
↳ HarborShift The domestic league isn’t garbage though. It’s not a top-five league, but it’s still stronger than plenty of UEFA leagues.
↳ GlacierFuse For sure — the league itself is solid. The problem is the chaos around it right now. If players end up suspended, or clubs start overworking their guys because others get banned, or even if the whole situation just weighs mentally on players, that could spill over into the national team.
↳ SilverWakeDrift I’ve been wondering the same thing — whether the betting scandal ends up banning Turkish players or forcing clubs to change their lineups, which could have a knock-on effect on the national team.
↳ IronvaleRunner Türkiye are the favorites, no question, but Romania and Slovakia aren’t weak sides. Wouldn’t surprise me if one of them sneaks an upset.
↳ CinderGrove Pretty much — Türkiye should advance, but it’s not exactly a smooth road for them.
SapphireMothwave
Blasting Dua Lipa at full volume to manifest a Kosovo playoff miracle.
↳ HarborNightDrive
One kiss is all it takes, after all.
↳ FoglineStatic
She’s Albanian though, not Kosovar.
↳ CrystallineRelay
Her background is Kosovar — and like most Kosovars, her family is ethnically Albanian.
She holds Albanian citizenship and, for the record, Kosovar citizenship too.
↳ SapphireMothwave
She was born in London, but her family’s from Pristina, Kosovo, so the energy still counts.
↳ NordicSpire
It’s basically the same thing anyway.
LumenCrossfade
If Türkiye are the toughest possible opponent in our group and we’re the host nation, we absolutely should be finishing first.
↳ RustvalePilot
I disagree. If Türkiye make it through the playoff, they instantly become the favorites on talent alone.
↳ HarborShifted
That’s pretty unlikely with the U.S. playing at home. And Türkiye haven’t been to a World Cup in ages.
↳ EchoMesaFrame
If this tournament were being held anywhere but the United States, then yeah, I’d agree with you.
↳ MarinadeTheory
People forget Türkiye reached the Euros quarterfinal. Transfermarkt values them at €477M compared to the U.S. around €150M.
They’ve got players starting at Real Madrid, Juventus, Inter.
So yeah… maybe rethink who the “favorite” really is.
↳ CinderRidge
I’m not scared of a damn bird.
↳ FrostedAntler
Clearly you’ve never crossed paths with a Canadian goose.
↳ CinderRidge
Buddy, I eat geese for breakfast.
↳ SlateFeather
lol it’s Türkiye though
↳ BorealSignifier
Do you correct Turks when they call the U.S. “Amerika Birleşik Devletleri”? Just curious.
↳ SkyboundJunction
So you’re saying you’re not afraid of pterosaurs either?
Still technically birds… and you’d absolutely lose your mind if one showed up.
↳ MesaChrome
You seen any flying around lately?
↳ CinderRidge
Nah, I’d be chillin’.
HollowTraceRun
It’s a pretty favorable draw overall. Our 2022 group felt way tougher by comparison.
↳ NightForgeSyntax
Almost anything would feel tougher when you go from a 32-team field to a 48-team one.
↳ CoastalBinary
Plus we’re a Pot 1 team this time — that alone changes the math completely.
↳ MetroGlider
Yeah, the whole “group of death” idea doesn’t really exist anymore.
↳ ToastRaptor
By FIFA Elo, the U.S. actually had the hardest group in 2022. Honestly, this draw feels like cosmic justice.
ShorelineRift
Haiti really got wrecked by that draw — absolutely brutal.
↳ BlueMesaHybrid
Classic Pot 4 problems.
↳ TalonWeaver
They were always going to get a rough outcome, no matter what.
↳ GritstoneDelta
Was there any scenario where they didn’t end up screwed?
↳ HarborVantage
When has Haiti not gotten the short end of the stick?
The whole nation feels like a case study in cursed luck.
↳ IronValeScholar
Not so much “bad luck” as the long shadow of vicious imperialism, to be fair.
↳ DustTrailRunner
They took down Napoleon once… and somehow everything’s been downhill ever since.
↳ MosaicRunabout
Poor Cape Verde too, man. They didn’t deserve that either.
NebulaGatekeeper
This might honestly be the easiest group in the entire tournament — especially if anyone other than Türkiye wins that playoff spot.
↳ KosmicHarbor
Please, Kosovo. I’m begging.
↳ RustlineAtlas
I actually see four pretty evenly matched teams here.
Some people say you want a minnow in your group to secure an easy three points — but we don’t have one.
Paraguay, Türkiye, Australia… all legit sides, none of them fluked their way in.
Feels like one of those chaotic groups where all four teams still have a chance on the final matchday.
↳ BoltRange88
Yeah, grabbing three points off a minnow basically guarantees the round of 32. We don’t have that luxury.
↳ DuneShaker
How many true minnows were even possible? We couldn’t draw Haiti or Curaçao.
Maybe Cape Verde? Jordan?
↳ QuartzHarpoon
Qatar are pretty rough too, let’s be honest.
↳ ColdRinkOrbit
The UEFA playoff winner is absolutely taking Group B in my opinion.
↳ BushlineSpecter
There are definitely easier groups out there, but our Pot 2 draw was fantastic, so I can’t complain.
↳ IronValeHatch
Nah, Germany got the softest group.
But yeah, this is one the U.S. should escape comfortably — maybe even win.
↳ HorizonDrift
So basically… we might be facing every team we scrimmaged over the summer and fall? lol
EchoDriftSignal
So… are we all officially rooting for Kosovo to take that playoff spot?
↳ HarborMastodon
Anyone but Türkiye at this point, honestly.
↳ VectorSundial
I kinda feel like if the group stage ends up too easy, we’re gonna walk into the knockouts undercooked.
↳ IronTrailHollows
Australia and Paraguay are no freebies though.
Australia made it out of their group last World Cup — they beat Denmark and Tunisia before pushing Argentina in a 1–2 loss.
Both matches should be tight and genuinely competitive.
HarborSlate
If we top the group, we’d face a third-place team first — and if we win that, we could be looking at the Group G winner in the Round of 16… possibly Belgium. Honestly, that might be one of the more manageable Pot 1 opponents.
↳ RidgewayPulse
Yes.
↳ GaleFrontier
Wow, then draw-wise this is about as good as it gets.
↳ CrimsonLatchkey
Right — and assuming Spain handle their business, they’d probably be our quarterfinal matchup if we make it past the Round of 16.
↳ BranchlineSpecter
…well that would suck lol.
But hey, if we even reach the quarterfinals, that’s a win in my book.
↳ CrimsonLatchkey
Yeah, making the quarters is a massive achievement by itself.
If Spain win their group and beat a third-place team, they might still have to take out Portugal, Colombia, England, or Croatia just to reach the quarters — so there’s a real chance they don’t even make it that far.
↳ LumenHarbor
Once you hit the quarterfinals, every team is dangerous anyway.
↳ MetroGlider
Any opponent in the quarters is going to be brutal.
↳ BranchlineSpecter
For sure.
But remember: there are eight teams left at that point. Spain (and maybe France) are the real juggernauts, so there’s only a 1/8 or 2/8 chance we draw one of them.
I’d much rather face England, Germany, or Portugal in that round.
But again — if we even get that far, I’m thrilled.
↳ IronvaleCourier
Drawing Belgium in the Round of 16 is honestly the best part of the whole bracket — assuming we finish first.
SignalBrewMage
Honestly, this might be the most balanced group in the entire draw — way tougher than people think.
There’s no Qatar, Jordan, Uzbekistan, New Zealand, or Cape Verde type team here.
Every single matchup is legit.
We really need to be careful.
↳ CanyonStride
It’s balanced for sure, but we’ve got home-field advantage and we’ve already faced all three teams this year.
We beat two of them, and the one loss came with a weaker squad than we’ll field at the tournament.
That alone pushes things in our favor.
↳ SignalBrewMage
It’s wild because we could genuinely take all 9 points… but we could also finish anywhere from 1st to 4th.
Beating Australia and Paraguay so recently kind of messes with my head — like it’s too convenient.
Feels like they’ll be extra prepared for us now.
All three teams are extremely disciplined.
↳ CanyonStride
The 2014 and 2022 groups were way tougher for us.
This time? The U.S. has to top the group — whether with 9 or 7 points.
Anything less is a failure.
Top the group and we likely avoid a top-5 team until the quarterfinals.
Belgium in the Round of 16 is probably the only major roadblock.
Finish second or worse and we’re basically asking to be eliminated early.
Pot 1 helped us — now topping the group is the next step.
Enough of this “barely escaping the group” stuff.
↳ VerdantSpines
You guys are dreaming.
You’ll wake up after the first match.
USA gets maybe one point — and only against Paraguay.
Australia and Türkiye will beat you.
↳ SignalBrewMage
Which UEFA Path C team would you actually want?
I think we’d blow Romania off the field, so they’re my pick — but revenge against Türkiye sounds fun too.
↳ RidgewayPulse
If they prepare based on the October/November friendlies, they’re getting clowned.
We were missing most of our best players and still won.
↳ SignalBrewMage
Exactly — and Pochettino has to avoid assuming the same lineups will magically work again just because they worked once.
He’s still figuring out this squad.
Part of why the fall windows were so successful is because he sent the message that nobody’s spot is guaranteed.
People were clowning him with “MLS quota” conspiracies when he was literally just evaluating the player pool.
Not saying the European guys will flop next summer, but it’s a totally different environment and different stakes.
WildSummitChord
Yeah, agreed. Paraguay and Australia are legit challenges — we’re a tier above them overall, but they’re no pushovers.
If Türkiye make it through the playoff, they’ll be our toughest matchup, and honestly they’re pretty much on our level.
↳ ArcaneBrewWeaver
Yeah, same here.
Our loss to Türkiye in September might actually be the thing that fires us up — because we did outplay them for stretches of that match.
And facing them last could help: if that game ends up being “win or go home,” the old U.S. mentality might kick in.
Part of me wishes we played them first though.
↳ ShortCircuitTrader
It’s the World Cup — top 48 in the world — there was never going to be a group full of minnows.
Look at Australia’s roster: mostly MLS-level or below.
That’s honestly about as favorable as it gets at this stage.
↳ IronvaleCourier
Having no weak team might actually work for us.
Everyone else has to grind through tough matches too — no freebies for anybody.
↳ MagmaRunShifter
I’d rather have this than a group with one “easy” team that everyone else farms points off of.
This is gonna be absolute chaos — which makes it fun as hell to watch.
Still feel like Türkiye might run away with it though.
VoidCycleTheory
We honestly pulled the best draw we could’ve hoped for. Unreal.
↳ EmeraldTraverse
Not quite — the dream draw would’ve been Austria, New Zealand, and Côte d’Ivoire.
↳ RidgeStoneJots
I don’t trust Côte d’Ivoire one bit.
They share a border with Ghana — that’s enough said.
↳ NebulaAvenue
We do not speak of Ghana.
↳ PolarFrame
Ghana… the team we’ve beaten three straight times?
↳ BoltShift35
Bro has clearly never watched Austria play.
↳ BranchlineSpecter
Yeah, not perfect — but still nothing to complain about.
Great pull from Pot 2, but the other two pots could’ve been better.
↳ IronvaleCourier
The issue with getting Australia from Pot 2 is it made a UEFA team in Pot 4 almost guaranteed.
Austria would’ve been ideal: weakest Pot 2 option and it would’ve opened the door for two non-UEFA teams in the other pots.
CrimsonValeRunner
Possible rematch with Belgium in our first knockout appearance.
↳ GraniteRebound
Perfect chance for Wondolowski redemption.
↳ JottingHarbor
Anyone know what Julian Green is up to these days?
↳ CrimsonValeRunner
Probably turning 29 and wondering where the time went.
↳ AeroKeeper16
So… is Tim Howard available to patch our goalkeeper problem?
↳ CrimsonLockLegend
The rematch would actually happen in the Round of 16, not the Round of 32.
↳ DustlineTactician
Group D’s runner-up plays Group G’s runner-up in the first knockout — that’s how you’d get Belgium that early.
↳ SwinkForge
Right, it wouldn’t be the first knockout round unless both teams win their groups.
If both top their groups → Belgium in the Round of 16.
↳ NoFishHarbor
Not exactly — if we finish first, our Round of 32 opponent is a third-place team from Groups B, E, F, I, or J.
↳ CurtainTrace
Yeah, and then Belgium likely waits in the next round.
And if we go even further… Spain probably shows up after that.
Way too early to think about, but hilarious to picture.
↳ SixtyTwentyPath
If we get a third-place team, it might even be someone from Group I — Senegal, France, or Norway.
If we finish second, then it’s probably the runner-up from Group G — maybe Egypt or Iran.
↳ CanyonStride
It’s a huge advantage that we’ve already played Australia and Paraguay — and got results.
We need to win this group. No excuses.
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